短时交通流混沌预测模型的比较研究

短时交通流预测是实现交通流诱导的关键技术之一.针对目前短时交通混沌预测模型预测结果差异较大的问题,归纳了4种基于混沌理论的短时交通流预测模型:RBF神经网络模型、最大Lyapunov指数模型、局域线性模型和Volterra滤波器自适应预测模型,并对这4种预测模型进行了比较研究.应用4种预测模型对几个典型的非线性系统进行预测,验证了算法的准确性.然后用这4种预测模型对微观实测交通流的时间序列进行实证分析.仿真结果表明,4种预测模型对典型混沌时间序列具有很好的预测效果;而对实测交通流预测,其预测精度和稳定性较差,但可以满足实时交通流预测的需要.     

一种基于Q学习的单路口交通信号控制方法

利用Watkins(1989)提出的Q学习算法,基于不同相位的动态最小时间需求,并以相位通行需求时间为研究对象,以动态相位时间差为状态转换控制目标,建立了单路口交通信号控制的一种动态智能控制方法.计算机模拟仿真表明这种控制方法的好的控制效果.     

规定安全间隔的CNS性能环境研究

对平行航路下规定安全间隔的CNS性能环境评估问题进行了研究.首先分析了CNS性能环境对飞机碰撞风险的影响,并结合Reich模型和概率论方法建立了CNS性能环境下飞机纵向、侧向和垂直方向上的碰撞风险模型;其次对碰撞风险模型进行分析转化得到了规定的安全间隔和安全目标水平下CNS性能环境的评估计算方法.最后对平行航路的CNS性能环境进行了评估计算,得到符合航路安全目标水平1.5×10~(-8)的CNS性能环境为RNP10、RCP400、RSP20.     

Routing and wavelength assignment algorithms for multiclass WDM optical networks

In this paper dynamic routing and wavelength assignment strategies have been proposed for multiclass WDM optical networks. Multiclass optical networks provide multiple classes of services to the subscriber according to the requirement, which in turn increase operational profitability. Each class of service could be characterized by parameters like number of wavelengths, expected call holding time and average arrival rate of request. The proposed strategies have been analyzed and compared with existing strategies on the basis of blocking probabilities for multiclass traffic scenarios. Simulation results on different network topologies demonstrate that the performance of proposed strategies “Fixed shortest/alternate shortest path routing with wavelength reservation (FSASWR)” and “Fixed alternate shortest path routing with least priority wavelength assignment (FASPL)” are much better as compared to existing strategies. Proposed strategies minimize blocking probability of the multiclass network using limited number of wavelengths.     

考虑交通出行惯例的双向行人流模型研究

推广了Baek等人最近提出的一个双向行人流模型,提出了两种改进策略,并从行人平均速度-密度关系、行人空间分布密度和位置分布等方面进行了数值分析. 研究发现,引入的两个新策略不仅可以提高行人流的平均速度,而且可以提高道路系统(尤其是道路中央区域)利用率,减轻拥堵状况,有效避免严重堵塞的发生. 改进的策略对行人的心理特点和行为特性等方面考虑更加全面,而且可以较好地模拟高密度的双向行人流. 关键词： 元胞自动机模型 双向行人流 交通惯例     

考虑意外事件对交通流影响的元胞自动机交通流模型

在NaSh模型的基础上,考虑交通事故和养护路段等意外事件对高速公路交通流的影响,建立了有意外事件影响的在车道管制下的高速公路交通流元胞自动机模型,并进行数值模拟. 研究发现:意外事件对高速公路交通流有明显影响,并且意外事件对交通流的影响在某一密度值范围内尤其明显,且意外事件堵塞点在第一车道比在第二车道对交通流的影响小;同时,在该密度值范围内,意外事件堵塞时间和堵塞路段长度越长,对交通流的影响就越大. 关键词： 元胞自动机 交通流 意外事件     

混合交通流时间序列的去趋势波动分析

应用去趋势波动分析法研究交通流时间序列的复杂性,探讨了混合交通流时间序列演变行为的标度指数.根据标度指数的变化特征,进而揭示交通流时间序列所具有的长程相关性和短程相关性.通过分析发现,存在一密度ρ,当ρ₁<ρ<ρ₂时,交通流时间序列具有长程相关性;而当ρ<ρ₁或ρ>ρ₂时,交通流时间序列具有短程相关性,即密度的变化影响着标度指数的变化.另外分析了在不同慢车比率条件下时间序列的标度指数,发现慢车比率的变化 关键词： 混合交通流 去趋势波动分析 时间序列 长程相关     

基于MSM输入输出排队交换结构的调度算法研究

信息网络的传输宽带化和业务多样化需求给交换结构的可扩展性及性能提出了更高的要求.基于MSM(Memory-Space-Memory)输入输出排队交换结构进行研究,通过对交换网络内部拥塞调度机制进行深入分析,在保障调度公平性的基础上,提出一种严格匹配输出调度过程的SM-RR(Strict Matching algorithm based onRound-Robin)算法.与现有典型算法相比,该算法无需加速比即可获得较高的性能.     

An Ant Colony Optimisation algorithm for solving the asymmetric traffic assignment problem

In this paper we propose an Ant Colony Optimisation (ACO) algorithm for defining the signal settings on urban networks following a local approach. This consists in optimising the signal settings of each intersection of an urban network as a function only of traffic flows at the accesses to the same intersection, taking account of the effects of signal settings on costs and on user route choices. This problem, also known as Local Optimisation of Signal Settings (LOSS), has been widely studied in the literature and can be formulated as an asymmetric assignment problem. The proposed ACO algorithm is based on two kinds of behaviour of artificial ants which allow the LOSS problem to be solved: traditional behaviour based on the response to pheromones for simulating user route choice, and innovative behaviour based on the pressure of an ant stream for solving the signal setting definition problem. Our results on real-scale networks show that the proposed approach allows the solution to be obtained in less time but with the same accuracy as in traditional MSA (Method of Successive Averages) approaches.     

NONLOCAL CROWD DYNAMICS MODELS FOR SEVERAL POPULATIONS

This paper develops the basic analytical theory related to some recently introduced crowd dynamics models.Where well posedness was known only locally in time,it is here extended to all of R+.The result...